AI and jobs: co-pilot or catapult? - A thought experiment

How will I make a living if AI takes over my job? This is one of the most frequently asked questions about the consequences of using AI in companies. Typical answers are: "It will not happen soon." Or: "Many jobs will disappear, but others will be created. It's always been this way. 

We want to investigate whether the impact of AI applications on the labour market is similar to the introduction of other revolutionary technologies, such as the Internet. To do this, we use the nanoeconomic framework (Gerlach, 2025). 

The first question is: what is the role of workers in production processes? According to the model, production is about creating a product with a specific purpose for specific users who can use it to satisfy deeper needs. The production process uses tools, machines, energy and labour to transform materials into the desired end products. All of this takes place in production sites, with the help of supply chains that provide intermediate products.

The second aspect is information. Information is used at every point in the production process and in exchanges with suppliers. This information processing includes data sources, algorithms, tools and output information. This is how people work in production: information is collected, processed - with algorithms, computers or in people's heads - and then output to make decisions and take action.

Current research is looking at the extent to which AI can increase labour productivity and potentially eliminate jobs. One prominent study suggests a low to moderate increase in labour productivity over the next ten years (e.g. Acemoglu, 2024). One study looked at the productivity of laboratory workers (Toner-Rodgers, 2024). 

These studies look at work processes in isolation and see the new technology only as a co-pilot supporting the work processes.

This isolated view does not reflect reality. The following thought experiment illustrates the outcomes of a broader perspective on the issue.

The ABC jobs experiment

Let's imagine a company with three employees: Anna, Benni and Carla. Anna can do 100 tasks, Benni 200 - including Anna's 100 - and Carla 300, including Anna's and Benni's tasks. Anna earns 10 Euros per hour, Benni 20 Euros and Carla 30 Euros. This is the situation before the introduction of AI. 

Now let's see what happens when AI enters this company and turns everything upside down.

First circle: the employees

Let's start with Anna, Benni and Carla. With AI, they can do their jobs faster and better - like a co-pilot helping them. This sounds positive, but there is a downside. Anna sees an opportunity to earn more and wants to match Benni's 20 euros. Benni wants to take over Carla's tasks to earn more money. Carla tries to keep the others at arm's length to secure her position.

All three have ambitions - maybe a family, maybe personal goals - and more money would help them achieve them. They could join forces, share the AI and continue as a team. But even if they do, they are not alone in the company. It is already clear that everyone is trying to improve their position under the new conditions.

Second circle: the manager

But the employees’ fate isn’t theirs alone. Now their boss comes into play: Manfred, the manager. He is interested in three things: reducing costs, saving costs and reducing costs. When he realises that AI tools can take over or eliminate certain tasks, he immediately gets to work finding these cost-cutting opportunities. Of the 300 tasks, half could be eliminated and another 100 could be done by AI - leaving 50 tasks for the three employees. These 50 tasks are more complex and could affect Carla's area, as simple tasks are eliminated first.

Manfred analyses without sentimentality: Anna has little chance, Benni is unsure, Carla could stay. But only one person is needed. For reasons of cost, Manfred might prefer Benni - because he is cheaper than Carla. But Carla could take the initiative and propose: Manfred, I'll take over the AI implementation and make sure that the tasks are completed even faster. In this way, she takes the work off him and secures her job.

All three are fighting for their jobs, but Manfred's focus is on numbers, not loyalty.

Third circle: competition

We now broaden our view to include other companies in the industry that are fighting for the same customers. These competitors are using AI to save money and also to develop better and cheaper products. Manfred observes this through his AI-enhanced market monitoring and realises that his company must do something or it will lose market share.

This creates new tasks for the company, such as innovative product features. Suddenly, Anna and Benni have a chance - provided they continue their education. Carla has an advantage with her qualifications, but she also has to adapt. The competition shows that it's not just about costs, but also about competing for customers. To do this, the company needs good, affordable products. Such innovations change the demand for employees.

Where might this lead? It is likely that automation and control by AI units will become unstoppable.

Fourth circle: the customer

Finally, let's bring the customer directly into the picture. If customers no longer need the product - because their needs have changed or because they have found a much better and cheaper solution with the help of AI - all the efforts of the employees and the company will be in vain. Anna, Benni, Carla and Manfred will all lose their jobs. No AI and no innovation can save the company if demand disappears. It would have to reorient itself and produce something else.

Conclusions

1. The biggest unknown is not AI, but other critical variables such as competition, customers and products.

2. The experiment shows that tasks come first and AI second.

3. Eliminating tasks is more important than co-piloting with AI tools.

4. The more tasks are taken over or eliminated by AI tools, the more AI becomes a catapult.

5. The future of the company and jobs can only be secured if the influence of external factors is taken into account and the company takes action.

6. Sooner or later, massive disruptions will take place and change the entire playing field.

AI tools are changing jobs, but they are also changing the dynamics of the industry as a whole. Employees will compete, managers will want to save money, competitors will attack, and customers will ultimately make new choices. 

Some employees may be able to keep their jobs by retraining. But this requires the company to remain relevant. The isolated view of job studies is not enough. The reality is more complex and will surprise us in the years to come.

Sources:

Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13-58.

Toner-Rodgers, A. (2024). Artificial intelligence, scientific discovery, and product innovation. arXiv preprint arXiv:2412.17866.

About the author: Silvio Gerlach, an economist with a sharp, systemic lens, breaks down the logic of how AI reshapes business, society, and our daily lives. Discover what AI means for us – and how to deal with the new realities. Subscribe now and cut through the hype.